Bitcoin Remains in Deep Value Territory as Glassnode Says Key Bottom Signals Are Missing

Bitcoin remains in a prolonged correction phase, with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode saying the cryptocurrency may be moving toward the later stages of a bear-market bottoming process. However, key recovery signals have yet to be confirmed.

Glassnode data indicates that Bitcoin has traded below its True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for about five months, keeping the asset in what the firm considers a deeply undervalued range. However, a definitive market bottom has not yet been established.

The continued weakness has been accompanied by increased selling pressure from long-term holders. Their realized losses have risen sharply, accounting for 43% of total realized value, up from 15% in early February. Daily realized losses recently reached $280 million, marking the highest level since December 2022.

Institutional demand has also yet to show a full recovery. Bitcoin ETF outflows have eased from $193 million per day to $88.9 million, but the funds continue to see net withdrawals. At the same time, daily ETF trading volumes remain between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below the October 2025 peak, indicating that institutional participation has not stabilized.

Market positioning in derivatives has shown some improvement, with the options open-interest put/call ratio falling to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026, suggesting weaker demand for bearish positions. However, continued demand for downside protection in options markets indicates investors remain cautious about further declines.

Glassnode said Bitcoin could be approaching a late-stage bottoming phase. However, confirmation would depend on several factors, including a slowdown in long-term holder selling, stabilization in ETF flows, and a sustained recovery above key cost-basis levels.

Source: Glassnode