Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Still in Loss for 8 Months as $74.8K Marks Break-Even Zone

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reports that Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) have now spent eight consecutive months trading below their average cost basis, which currently stands near $74,800.

Consequently, this cohort continues to face sustained pressure, holding an average unrealized loss of around 14.4%. Although this reflects a noticeable recovery from early February—when losses exceeded 34%—STHs are still broadly underwater despite recent price stabilization.

At the same time, the data shows an important structural shift in the market. The STH cost basis has declined from approximately $95,700 to $74,800, suggesting that a portion of short-term holders accumulated Bitcoin during recent dips. This activity effectively lowered the group’s average entry price, even as broader conditions remained volatile.

Looking back across the current cycle, STH profitability has shown sharp swings. Unrealized gains peaked at about 47% in March 2024, reflecting strong upside momentum at the time. However, even when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in October 2025, gains for this cohort were much more limited, topping out near 11%, indicating comparatively weaker participation in the latest rally phase.

Against this backdrop, the $74,800 level has now become a key reference point for the market. According to Darkfost, reclaiming this cost basis would be the first meaningful sign that STHs have returned to profitability, potentially signaling a shift in market dynamics.

Until that occurs, however, this level continues to act as resistance and a natural exit zone for holders. This behavior was also observed on May 10, when STHs briefly returned to a marginal profit of around 0.5% before slipping back once again into unrealized losses.

Source: Darkfost