MSTR Stress Test Rules Out “Death Spiral,” but Warns of BTC-Per-Share Collapse

A new three-year stress test by analyst Adam Livingston outlines a severe downside scenario for Strategy (MSTR) under extreme pressure in Bitcoin markets. The model assumes Bitcoin falling to $26,611 by month six, mNAV dropping below 0.50x, capital markets closing, and increased reliance on Bitcoin sales to service senior debt.

Within this framework, the projected financial metrics deteriorate rapidly. The claim ratio rises from 41.5% to 96.7%, while common equity Bitcoin per share declines sharply from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats. In parallel, the implied equity value compresses to about $1.01 per share.

As the stress period extends, the model assumes cash reserves are exhausted by month nine, triggering the sale of 115,727 BTC over a three-year horizon. Despite these outflows, the balance sheet still shows 731,636 BTC remaining, with mNAV modeled at 1.40x.

Overall, the study frames the primary risk as sustained per share compression in Bitcoin-denominated equity, rather than an immediate liquidation event or outright insolvency.

Source: Adam Livingston