Prediction Markets Trader Could Win $200K if Strategy Sold Bitcoin Last Week

A prediction market is still awaiting confirmation on whether Strategy, the company associated with Michael Saylor, sold any Bitcoin—an outcome that could result in a $200,000 payout for one trader.

The resolution hinges on Strategy’s upcoming 8-K filing, which is required to confirm whether any BTC was sold last week. Until then, the market is pricing in about an 11% chance that a sale occurred.

The speculation began after Strategy transferred Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime last Friday, marking the first known instance of its tagged wallets interacting with the platform. However, the same amount was withdrawn the following day, leaving the transaction’s intent unclear given current market conditions.

In response to the initial on-chain activity, the trader known as “Surprised-Legacy” built a $19.61K position and later sold around $15K after the movement was first detected.

Source: Arkham